As an HVAC manufacturer or distributor, you live for extreme temperatures. After all, it’s during a heat wave or a blizzard when contractor orders—for products like A/C units, furnaces, and heat pumps—are urgent and plentiful. These busy seasons are what help drive your company forward, keep your team working, and maintain steady business profits.
But eventually, contractor orders typically start to slow down. When that happens, you’ll find yourself once again worrying about your company’s cash flow, inventory, and logistical disruptions.
According to Samsara research, HVAC demand seasonality rises from a February low, peaks in October, and then tapers off by winter—although it varies significantly by U.S. State. The September slump—a short period categorized by mild temperatures and low call volume sandwiched between two much busier extremes—is when HVAC equipment shipments dip especially. September 2025 recorded the sharpest single-month year-over-year decline since at least 2010, with U.S. combined shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps down 41.5%.
Clearly, identifying peak seasons is essential to capitalize on heightened contractor demand. But what if there was a way to increase your profits year-round—and rarely worry about seasonal dips again?
Enter: The effective use of contractor data.
By combining contractor data from your internal systems with insights from a third-party provider, you can make smarter decisions that strengthen financial stability—and not just during peak demand.
Below, we’ll uncover what contractor data really means for your business, and how putting it to work today can lead to a more profitable tomorrow.
TL; DR
- HVAC is prone to seasonal fluctuations that can significantly affect your profits as an HVAC manufacturer or distributor.
- Contractor data is information from internal and external systems, including a contractor’s size and location, project details, services provided, and activity patterns.
- Effectively using contractor data can help better understand customers, define ideal customer profiles, segment intelligently, and target the right contractors.
- Contractor data is especially helpful during slow seasons, when use cases include whitespace analysis and territory planning, co-op funds and marketing development fund (MDF) prioritization, and A2L and electrification product positioning.
The Definition of Contractor Data
When it comes to understanding the contractors you work with, there’s no shortage of valuable internal data at your fingertips. You likely already have access to key insights, including:
- Contractor size,
- Contractor geographical location,
- The jobs the contractor is doing,
- The services the contractor provides,
- The type of business the contractor is in, and
- The contractor’s trade focus and activity patterns.
Known as contractor data, these insights can help you target the right contractors, reduce acquisition costs, and drive more profitable growth—but only when used strategically.
Unlocking the Full Value of Contractor Data
Although you recognize the many data points stored within your company, you may be underutilizing them to drive decision-making. When this happens, you’re missing out on identifying profitable opportunities, such as how to support contractors more effectively during the slow season and how to understand your true market opportunity.
Enriching your internal contractor data with external partner data offers even more insights. For example, by leveraging a contractor data partner like ToolBeltData, businesses can access insights drawn from 5.3+ million U.S. contractor companies—integrating information that’s rarely available in one place, such as:
- Permits,
- Licenses,
- Ratings and reviews,
- Secretary of state filings,
- Professional certifications,
- Online marketplace profiles,
- The contractors’ own websites,
- Trade association memberships, and
- Traditional compiled business files.
These specialized data elements deliver a 360° view of contractor insights, enabling smarter targeting, stronger engagement, and higher conversion throughout the sales funnel.
Practical Uses for Contractor Data During Slow Seasons
The effective use of contractor data during slow seasons isn’t just good business practice—it’s a smart strategy. The U.S. HVAC market reached an estimated USD $31.26 Billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD $38.45 Billion by 2030, representing a 7.87% compound annual growth rate (CAGR).
By leveraging contractor data insights effectively, manufacturers and distributors can take proactive steps to reduce profit dips during slower periods—and position themselves for stronger performance year-round.
Whitespace Analysis and Territory Planning
Whitespace analysis identifies untapped business opportunities—areas where competition is low and potential for new business or account expansion exists. For example, identifying U.S. states well-suited for heat pump adoption but that aren’t yet seeing high installation rates can reveal growth opportunities competitors have overlooked.
Territory planning builds on this insight, using whitespace analysis and other data to align sales teams with real opportunities. Rather than analyzing customer location only, you use customer needs and buying behaviors to define territories. This type of strategic planning clearly defines coverage, optimizes resource allocation, and reduces the risk of underserved areas or missed revenue.
Without contractor data, territory planning becomes little more than assigning sales reps to geographic boundaries. A data-driven, adaptable approach allows territories to be shaped by real-time insights, customer demand, and team performance—rather than static lines on a map.
Co-Op Funds and Marketing Development Funds (MDF)
Co-op funds and marketing development funds (MDF) are two funding options that help reduce the cost of local marketing for local partners. Used to implement a distributed marketing strategy—where local reseller partners sell your products or services—they help further your reach and obtain leads.
Contractor data provides the insight needed to allocate funds to the most effective program—co-op or MDF—based on real partner behavior, not assumptions. By analyzing factors such as sales volume, growth trends, market focus, and customer profiles, contractor data helps distinguish between partners that deliver steady, high-volume performance and those driving influence in emerging or fast-moving markets.
As a result, co-op marketing can be directed toward local channel partners with consistent, large-scale sales. At the same time, MDF can be strategically invested in resellers operating in dynamic markets where early adoption, experimentation, and product momentum matter most.
Product Positioning Around A2L and Electrification
Contractor data is especially valuable during periods of industry change, such as the shift toward A2L refrigerants and electrification. Besides identifying where A2L and electrification adoption will occur first—putting you ahead of your competition—the data can pinpoint:
- Contractors serving early-adopter customers,
- Markets where A2L readiness is increasing ahead of peak demand, and
- Regions with high electrification incentives but low installation penetration.
To further identify the most valuable contractors to engage with, use contractor data to identify companies that are:
- Trained or certified for A2L refrigerants,
- Actively marketing electrification services, and
- Already installing heat pumps or electric HVAC systems.
In the end, contractor data makes navigating complex industry transitions clearer and more actionable. These insights help determine which contractors to target first—those ready to sell and install new systems now—so resources aren’t wasted on partners who aren’t yet prepared.
Contractor data also reduces smooth seasonal slumps by identifying markets ready for transition, even when overall demand is soft.
A 60–90 Day Pilot Play for A2L/Electrification Early-Adopter Targeting
- Use internal company data to identify contractors in a specific region currently installing heat pumps or electric systems.
- Integrate additional data from a third-party data provider to expand on these insights and identify prospects who serve early-adopter or incentive-driven homeowners and show growth momentum (not just volume).
- Segment prospects into a top 50–100 priority list.
- Create and deploy a targeted campaign, including dedicated email and sales outreach, limited MDF or training incentives, and early-access messaging (“A2L-ready”).
Within only three months, you’ll quickly discover which contractor profiles convert fastest, which messaging resonates in transition markets, and–most importantly–where to scale next.
Turning Contractor Data into Year-Round Revenue Impact
In the HVAC industry, demand predictably spikes during extreme temperatures—like frigid blizzards or relentless heatwaves. But that doesn’t mean your manufacturing or distribution business has to feel the strain during slower periods. By leveraging in-depth contractor data, you can make smarter, insight-driven decisions that support year-round profitability.
Fortunately, it won’t take long to start seeing results. You’re already sitting on a wealth of internal data—contractor size, location, and activity patterns. When combined with insights from a contractor data partner, this information uncovers missed opportunities and fuels revenue growth well beyond seasonal peaks.